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Thread: General Horse Racing Thread

  1. #1
    aka WLG pv4's Avatar
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    General Horse Racing Thread

    yo vikingjet - give us your wrap up on this years race. I need to know who I'm putting in my trifecta
    OK

  2. #2
    1. Mount Athos
    2. Americain
    3. Lights of Heaven

  3. #3
    Senior Member Buddha's Avatar
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    Mount Athos - Win
    Red Cadeaux - Place
    My Quest for Peace - Each Way

    or just slap it all on the preluding races and be done with it

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  5. #5
    I like q's third top rater above. Neither of those blokes know her. Hilarious!

    Tough race - my advice would be to bet around the cup...although, the pools are so big you have to have a nibble. Also, remember that the international runners are not 'the best of the best' nor are they 'superstars'. They tend to be the second stringers below the Arc and Breeders Cup runners. They have done well in recent years, but Australia has had few decent stayers in. This year is different - Ethiopia, Maluckyday (even Lights of Heaven and Zabeelionaire) are strong chances. Indeed, with an unimpeded run, Maluckyday would have beaten Americain 2 years ago.

    Given that it is an open race, best tactic is to rule out those that can't win, and then narrow in from there:

    Horses who can't win: Jakkalberry, Winchester, Voila Ichi, Sanagas, Niwot, Tac de Boistron, Precedence, Unusual Suspect.

    That leaves 16 live chances. Then you have to make a decision to cull those who are unlikely: Cavalryman, Fiorente, Galileo's Gold, Glencadam Gold, Green Moon, Mourayan, My Quest for Peace, Lights of Heaven, Zabeelionaire, Kelinni - these could surprise, but more likely to fill the places.

    That leaves 6: Dunaden, Americain, Red Cadeaux, Mount Athos, Ethiopia, Maluckyday. Dunaden has too much weight, as does Americain (although the latter should give it a shake). Mount Athos looks strong on paper, but has not run in Oz prior to the Cup.

    That leaves: Red Cadeaux, Ethiopia and Maluckyday. My money is on Ethiopia (got him at $51 after the Derby and he could be an 'equine freak'). I like the thought of two Australian runners finishing first and second to bust the 'internationals are too strong' myth. But Red Cadeaux will be tough to beat.

    If you are feeling patriotic, go the box quinella of Ethiopia and Maluckyday. Both beautifully bred and both real athletes.

    The best way to go in a Cup is to box up runners in a First 4. My suggestion is to put three in the first line, 5 in the second, 8 in the third and 10 in the fourth. Make it a $50 bet and cross fingers. Alternatively, roll the dice and stand one out, enabling you to put plenty in for the placings.

    Whatever you do, take this advice: drink lots, make romantic love in a portaloo, and get yourself a proper gambling hangover.

    (Oh, and back Syd Race 6 No. 5 Maidel)

  6. #6
    infant member plague's Avatar
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    Good wrap VJ. here's some of the best advice I've ever had.

    Don't read trainers opinions, EVER.

    Ken Callender and Gary Harley haven't picked a winner in about 30years. Don't listen to them.

    Lloyd Williams is one of the most honest blokes in racing. If he says a horse will win, pay attention.

    Michael and Alan Eskander are honest bookies. Will dish out free advice all day and provide plenty of winners.

    Good luck everyone.

  7. #7
    Senior Member Buddha's Avatar
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    I may suggest kelinni a huge chance for places, ran brilliant on saturday, carrying a low weight which is ideal on the home straight, well worth a flutter in your tri or quaddie

    also although green moon totally ****ed up in the cox plate, he's a longer distance runner, give him a chance

  8. #8
    in awe of baz GazFish35's Avatar
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    can guarantee I will not lose money tomorrow.
    I have a fool proof system, never lost coin on the nags.

    send $20 to my Nigerian bank account and i'll let you in on the secret.

  9. #9
    aka WLG pv4's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gary Fish View Post
    can guarantee I will not lose money tomorrow.
    I have a fool proof system, never lost coin on the nags.

    send $20 to my Nigerian bank account and i'll let you in on the secret.
    let me guess - don't bet on it & you won't lose anything?
    OK

  10. #10
    I like Maluckyday e/w.Got fixed odds @ $14 and $4.24,ran 2nd in the cup 2 years ago and got scratched late last year so can go the distance. Quinella no's 15,4,.Trifecta/flexie no's 1,2,4,14,15

  11. #11
    My advice is to go wide... back 3,4 or even 5 horses... bet more agressively on your favoured runner and smaller bets on not so favoured.

    Today you have more chance in backing a winner in a maiden at Echuca than the cup

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    I have based my tips purely on statistics over the years of the cup running. i know nothing about horse racing so i thought i would give this a shot. for example no horse has ever won from barrier 18 (red cadeaux), most successful colour is navy, no 8 yr old has ever won it (americain), most successful barriers, weight handicaping etc etc etc. so based on my statistics (which i hope were correct) i narrowed it down to one horse.
    so my money is on green moon.

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    hey VJ what do you reckon of this field? still easier to bet on than french trots

  14. #14
    infant member plague's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lionel Hutz View Post
    I have based my tips purely on statistics over the years of the cup running. i know nothing about horse racing so i thought i would give this a shot. for example no horse has ever won from barrier 18 (red cadeaux), most successful colour is navy, no 8 yr old has ever won it (americain), most successful barriers, weight handicaping etc etc etc. so based on my statistics (which i hope were correct) i narrowed it down to one horse.
    so my money is on green moon.
    I wholeheartedly agree with everything you say here, but you didn't factor in the biggest handicap of all on Green Moon.
    The stink of Gary Harley.
    If it can overcome that then we are looking at the greatest horse in the history of mankind.

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    Quote Originally Posted by vikingjet View Post
    (Oh, and back Syd Race 6 No. 5 Maidel)
    Got $13 fixed odds for it the other day, saw this morning it is into $3

  16. #16
    aka WLG pv4's Avatar
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    anyone have a video stream lined up for the race?

    work bitches won't let us out early to go watch it
    OK

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lionel Hutz View Post
    I have based my tips purely on statistics over the years of the cup running. i know nothing about horse racing so i thought i would give this a shot. for example no horse has ever won from barrier 18 (red cadeaux), most successful colour is navy, no 8 yr old has ever won it (americain), most successful barriers, weight handicaping etc etc etc. so based on my statistics (which i hope were correct) i narrowed it down to one horse.
    so my money is on green moon.
    What lotto numbers should I pick?

  18. #18
    aka WLG pv4's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bremsstrahlung View Post
    What lotto numbers should I pick?
    jeezus

    wd bud

    do those stats work for football multis?
    OK

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bremsstrahlung View Post
    What lotto numbers should I pick?
    i think ive used up all of my luck for the day, so my tip would be go with your own numbers.

  20. #20
    infant member plague's Avatar
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    Will freely admit that I didn't back it purely because of the stink of Harley.
    Well in Lionel.

    As for you Harley, VENGENCE WILL BE MINE!!!!!!!!!!

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