RodrÃ*guez OUT

[plague]

seriously, the bloke has scored zero goals. zero assists (the only stat that matterz).
have heard he hasnt even been assed to come to training.

cant have such a lazy player in our squad.

[lquiquer]

His Dad Milton speaks for him... get off him sir.....

[Grimario]

Patito patato. Let's call the whole thing off.

[plague]

another Middleby folly.

typical signing from Tinkler and his henchmen. saw a latino name and played the stereotype.

middleby OUT

[The Dunster]

He doesn't even have multi on the Foz ffs. Totally unprofessional.

[belchardo]

zero assists (the only stat that matterz).

I saw an article that referred to 'secondary assists' the other day. pretty sure he doesn't have any of them either.

[Jeterpool]

I've been listening to pods refer to xG, or expected goals. Seriously...

[Macca]

I've been listening to pods refer to xG, or expected goals. Seriously...

Come on stats man, get on board, xG is a great stat.
Read a Guardian half-season A-League review article yesterday though that completely misinterpreted the stat (actually a derivative of it, xGD) and drew opposite conclusions from it which was fairly humorous to read.

[pv4]

Don't Hoff lovers credit him with the pass before the pass all the time?

[Jetmaster]

Since this day I have only cared for one stat (the top one funnily enough):

https://img.balls.ie/balls_ie/eyJkYXRhIjoie1widXJsXCI6XCJodHRwOlxcXC9cXFwvczMtZX Utd2VzdC0xLmFtYXpvbmF3cy5jb21cXFwvc3RvcmFnZS5wdWJs aXNoZXJwbHVzLmllXFxcL21lZGlhLmJhbGxzLmllXFxcL3VwbG 9hZHNcXFwvMjAxMlxcXC8xMVxcXC9hWUZSai01ODB4NDM1Lmpw Z1wiLFwid2lkdGhcIjo2NDAsXCJoZWlnaHRcIjozNjAsXCJkZW ZhdWx0XCI6XCJodHRwczpcXFwvXFxcL3d3dy5iYWxscy5pZVxc XC9hc3NldHNcXFwvaVxcXC9uby1pbWFnZS5wbmc_dj00XCJ9Ii wiaGFzaCI6ImFjYTk3OTcxNDYwZmVmMTgxNDUzMGIzM2UwNjhm MWFjNDIxM2U2NGIifQ==/crazy-stats-from-the-celtic-vs-barca-match.jpg

[Macca]

Since this day I have only cared for one stat (the top one funnily enough):

https://img.balls.ie/balls_ie/eyJkYXRhIjoie1widXJsXCI6XCJodHRwOlxcXC9cXFwvczMtZX Utd2VzdC0xLmFtYXpvbmF3cy5jb21cXFwvc3RvcmFnZS5wdWJs aXNoZXJwbHVzLmllXFxcL21lZGlhLmJhbGxzLmllXFxcL3VwbG 9hZHNcXFwvMjAxMlxcXC8xMVxcXC9hWUZSai01ODB4NDM1Lmpw Z1wiLFwid2lkdGhcIjo2NDAsXCJoZWlnaHRcIjozNjAsXCJkZW ZhdWx0XCI6XCJodHRwczpcXFwvXFxcL3d3dy5iYWxscy5pZVxc XC9hc3NldHNcXFwvaVxcXC9uby1pbWFnZS5wbmc_dj00XCJ9Ii wiaGFzaCI6ImFjYTk3OTcxNDYwZmVmMTgxNDUzMGIzM2UwNjhm MWFjNDIxM2U2NGIifQ==/crazy-stats-from-the-celtic-vs-barca-match.jpg

Fair point and you are not alone. But if the end score is all that matters why watch the game? Look up the final score and you should get the same experience as watching, right?

Soccer is a pretty hard game to try and quantify but even the simple stats lower down in that image paint a rudimentary picture of how the game went. They should be considered as some colouring in of the outline that the score tells you.

[pv4]

Fair point and you are not alone. But if the end score is all that matters why watch the game? Look up the final score and you should get the same experience as watching, right?

Soccer is a pretty hard game to try and quantify but even the simple stats lower down in that image paint a rudimentary picture of how the game went. They should be considered as some colouring in of the outline that the score tells you.

The other stats and contexts are important because you get to attempt to judge how successful it would be to maintain in the short and long term, and how reproducible results are based on how you achieved them.

Spira once singlehandedly shut Messi out of a game in the 08 Olympics. Does that make Spira a better player than Messi? I still argue yes..... :oops:

[plague]

stats are dumb in soccer because they somehow have led us to the conclusion that its either Messi or Ronaldo.


and its not.

[plague]

I've been listening to pods refer to xG, or expected goals. Seriously...


expected goals is the feeling i had when i saw Griffs name on the team sheet.

[plague]

Come on stats man, get on board, xG is a great stat.
Read a Guardian half-season A-League review article yesterday though that completely misinterpreted the stat (actually a derivative of it, xGD) and drew opposite conclusions from it which was fairly humorous to read.

can someone legit explain it to me please.

[Macca]

can someone legit explain it to me please.

Expected goals? My understanding...

Different people have built their own models of it which give slightly different end results. But the concept of it is to quantify a team's performance in a way that provides long term "on average" relevance. A team can win 3-0 but get battered all game and nick a few scrappy goal mouth goals off set pieces - in cases such as this, the scoreline is not a good reflection of performance, merely the result. Expected goals tackles the problem by looking at each of the "chances" that a team had during a game, but assessing the quality of them not just quantity. How each model determines the quality of each chance is where the difficulty lies but its a great concept. Quality is usually analysed by things like position on the field from where the chance was taken, proximity to goal, was it a one on one or was it from a corner, header etc

An example of how it can be useful - hypothetical game where each team has 10 shots, 3 shots on target, game finishes 1-1. According to these stats, the game seems fairly even.
However - team A had a penalty and two one-on-one's saved, with a couple of tap-ins butchered. Based on how good their chances where, Brainiac's (tm) model predicts they could (on average, over a season) have expected to have scored 4 goals if that game was played out identically time and again.
team B had a scrappy goal and a couple of nothing shots on target from 30m and were largely ineffective in attack - their xG for the game is 0.6.

Comparing these stats we see that team A's finishing was well below par - they created enough good chances to wrap the game up easily but were unable to do so. While team B were not able to create a lot of good chances, but were able to get a goal anyhow.

You can also look at the stat for a player (ie striker) to look at how good a finisher they are. I remember reading that Harry Kane is well outperforming his expected goals - meaning he's able to score tough chances etc above what would be expected. You would think that a lot of top strikers would manage to exceed their xG, although an exception might be Cavani who is notorious for spurning a heap of chances. So while he might score the same amount of goals, he would have a lot higher expected goals amount than others.

[plague]

Expected goals? My understanding...

Different people have built their own models of it which give slightly different end results. But the concept of it is to quantify a team's performance in a way that provides long term "on average" relevance. A team can win 3-0 but get battered all game and nick a few scrappy goal mouth goals off set pieces - in cases such as this, the scoreline is not a good reflection of performance, merely the result. Expected goals tackles the problem by looking at each of the "chances" that a team had during a game, but assessing the quality of them not just quantity. How each model determines the quality of each chance is where the difficulty lies but its a great concept. Quality is usually analysed by things like position on the field from where the chance was taken, proximity to goal, was it a one on one or was it from a corner, header etc
An example of how it can be useful - hypothetical game where each team has 10 shots, 3 shots on target, game finishes 1-1. According to these stats, the game seems fairly even.
However - team A had a penalty and two one-on-one's saved, with a couple of tap-ins butchered. Based on how good their chances where, Brainiac's (tm) model predicts they could (on average, over a season) have expected to have scored 4 goals if that game was played out identically time and again.
team B had a scrappy goal and a couple of nothing shots on target from 30m and were largely ineffective in attack - their xG for the game is 0.6.

Comparing these stats we see that team A's finishing was well below par - they created enough good chances to wrap the game up easily but were unable to do so. While team B were not able to create a lot of good chances, but were able to get a goal anyhow.

You can also look at the stat for a player (ie striker) to look at how good a finisher they are. I remember reading that Harry Kane is well outperforming his expected goals - meaning he's able to score tough chances etc above what would be expected. You would think that a lot of top strikers would manage to exceed their xG, although an exception might be Cavani who is notorious for spurning a heap of chances. So while he might score the same amount of goals, he would have a lot higher expected goals amount than others.

cheers, and my following smart ass response is not directed at you.


but



so what youre saying is that someone watches a game and determines whether a team is essentially 'lucky' or 'unlucky' in front of goal. they then write that answer down in a fancy numeric term for someone else to decipher that number back out to mean 'lucky' or 'unlucky'.

so who benefits from knowing this stat? fans who cant be assed watching the game? to be honest they are better just saying 'lucky' or 'unlucky' to the average fan as it would make more sense.

opposition coaches only reading stats deserve to get the ass whopping that would follow not actually watching the other team play.

maybe gamblers? i could see it being a quick way to gloss over games to get a better idea on who to include in a fruitless 5 leg multi.




but man, it just continually amazes me the effort and trust people place in these type of stats as some way to seem more 'sockah woke' than the next guy.

and yeah im talking about americans, they love this shit. but they are mostly overweight and stupid people.

[MFKS]

expected goals is the feeling i had when i saw Griffs name on the team sheet.

I thought it also works in reverse too

When Bert names Boogaard in the team

Expected goals for the opposition rise as well

[The Dunster]

Expected goals? My understanding...

Different people have built their own models of it which give slightly different end results. But the concept of it is to quantify a team's performance in a way that provides long term "on average" relevance. A team can win 3-0 but get battered all game and nick a few scrappy goal mouth goals off set pieces - in cases such as this, the scoreline is not a good reflection of performance, merely the result. Expected goals tackles the problem by looking at each of the "chances" that a team had during a game, but assessing the quality of them not just quantity. How each model determines the quality of each chance is where the difficulty lies but its a great concept. Quality is usually analysed by things like position on the field from where the chance was taken, proximity to goal, was it a one on one or was it from a corner, header etc

An example of how it can be useful - hypothetical game where each team has 10 shots, 3 shots on target, game finishes 1-1. According to these stats, the game seems fairly even.
However - team A had a penalty and two one-on-one's saved, with a couple of tap-ins butchered. Based on how good their chances where, Brainiac's (tm) model predicts they could (on average, over a season) have expected to have scored 4 goals if that game was played out identically time and again.
team B had a scrappy goal and a couple of nothing shots on target from 30m and were largely ineffective in attack - their xG for the game is 0.6.

Comparing these stats we see that team A's finishing was well below par - they created enough good chances to wrap the game up easily but were unable to do so. While team B were not able to create a lot of good chances, but were able to get a goal anyhow.

You can also look at the stat for a player (ie striker) to look at how good a finisher they are. I remember reading that Harry Kane is well outperforming his expected goals - meaning he's able to score tough chances etc above what would be expected. You would think that a lot of top strikers would manage to exceed their xG, although an exception might be Cavani who is notorious for spurning a heap of chances. So while he might score the same amount of goals, he would have a lot higher expected goals amount than others.

Is the data normalised for bookmaker influence upon players performances? Jokes aside is their an algorithm for these calculations or is it like Time-form with horse racing where they essentially make it up as they go along - then market the crap out of it to make it sound scientific?

[turbojetfireV8]

I'm just substituting 'Nabbout' for Cavani as I read that...

[Macca]

cheers, and my following smart ass response is not directed at you.


but



so what youre saying is that someone watches a game and determines whether a team is essentially 'lucky' or 'unlucky' in front of goal. they then write that answer down in a fancy numeric term for someone else to decipher that number back out to mean 'lucky' or 'unlucky'.

so who benefits from knowing this stat? fans who cant be assed watching the game? to be honest they are better just saying 'lucky' or 'unlucky' to the average fan as it would make more sense.

opposition coaches only reading stats deserve to get the ass whopping that would follow not actually watching the other team play.

maybe gamblers? i could see it being a quick way to gloss over games to get a better idea on who to include in a fruitless 5 leg multi.




but man, it just continually amazes me the effort and trust people place in these type of stats as some way to seem more 'sockah woke' than the next guy.

and yeah im talking about americans, they love this shit. but they are mostly overweight and stupid people.

Some of it is luck yeah, some of it can be patterns and actual team or player traits. As I mentioned with Kane for example, you look at his goals scored compared to xG over the course of a season (which generally over that time frame a striker is not lucky for the whole thing) and see he is markedly overperforming - its somewhat of a measure of how clinical a finisher he is and is able to score goals more often than he should be.

As for whether quantifying it is worthwhile - I guess that's personal opinion to some degree, but to me its definitely yes, and I suspect the problem most people have is lack of understanding, not it being a number.
When discussing who won a game, you could say team A scored more than team B. Or you could say the score was 4-1.
You could say team A took more shots than team B, or say it was 11 shots to 2.

Putting a value to it is way more informative (as long as the stat is relevant and accurately determined) than dealing in the binary of yes/no.

I agree that any coach relying on stats alone is asking for trouble. But using them in conjunction with your eyes is useful, and can help to highlight things you may wish to examine more closely.
I think too many people look at stats and think "Its either got to be a 100% complete and accurate reflection of the game or its useless" when really most of them are useful if you just regard them as a different way to look at it.

[Macca]

Is the data normalised for bookmaker influence upon players performances? Jokes aside is their an algorithm for these calculations or is it like Time-form with horse racing where they essentially make it up as they go along - then market the crap out of it to make it sound scientific?

Honestly I haven't looked at the models themselves. I'm not sure what time-form is, I haven't had anything to do with horse racing. My understanding is different stats companies have worked out their own models for them. I believe they would just be calibrated empirically - the BBC page says Opta took data from 300,000 shots to work out the chances of each of them being a goal.

At this stage I think they should be taken with a grain of salt, as they are not the end product - but still a hell of a lot closer to the real thing than going off shots on target.

[Jetmaster]

but man, it just continually amazes me the effort and trust people place in these type of stats as some way to seem more 'sockah woke' than the next guy.

and yeah im talking about americans, they love this shit. but they are mostly overweight and stupid people.


Beginning to like your stuff Plague - nail on head. Americans - and people who wish they were Americans.

[plague]

As I mentioned with Kane for example, you look at his goals scored compared to xG over the course of a season (which generally over that time frame a striker is not lucky for the whole thing) and see he is markedly overperforming - its somewhat of a measure of how clinical a finisher he is and is able to score goals more often than he should be.


oh for sure, and again im not arguing with you. but to me anyone doing the numbers on Harry Kane would come up with the same conclusion as someone only watching the game, and that is you should probably mark the bloke who is scoring all the goals.

now, the numbers wont tell you 'why' he gets so many goals. which is again, why i dont understand the 'need' for a stat that states the blindingly obvious.

now, again im not anti technology. i actually think that things like heat maps and knowing how much running certain opposition players do. you can set up a game plan to mark players out of their comfort zones, you can run an opposition player ragged who doesnt like to run. i think tech can be used in those areas really effectively.

and again, one on one sports like baseball, even cricket are really good for analytics. i just believe that 'fluid' games like soccer and even basketball are really really hard to define.

[plague]

Beginning to like your stuff Plague - nail on head. Americans - and people who wish they were Americans.

beginning?

i had you at hello.

[WolfMan]

Beginning to like your stuff Plague - nail on head. Americans - and people who wish they were Americans.

First thing I thought of was some of the advanced metrics utilised in baseball.

stuff like xFIP and BABIP

Pie in the sky stuff, much more useful to baseball though given the sheer amount of games and situations it can be applied to

[Premy]

So how about that Rodriguez bloke, can't even have a thread about him not go off on a tangent.

Paddy out.

[plague]

So how about that Rodriguez bloke, can't even have a thread about him not go off on a tangent.

Paddy out.

That’s because he’s done nowt to get excited about.

Total letdown. He could leave tomorrow and I’d not even miss him.

Typical Middleby signing.

[380]

Bloke has done nothing.

Not until he can talk his mate into coming down under to help a struggling club called the Jets on a pro Bono basis.

[Macca]

oh for sure, and again im not arguing with you. but to me anyone doing the numbers on Harry Kane would come up with the same conclusion as someone only watching the game, and that is you should probably mark the bloke who is scoring all the goals.

now, the numbers wont tell you 'why' he gets so many goals. which is again, why i dont understand the 'need' for a stat that states the blindingly obvious.

now, again im not anti technology. i actually think that things like heat maps and knowing how much running certain opposition players do. you can set up a game plan to mark players out of their comfort zones, you can run an opposition player ragged who doesnt like to run. i think tech can be used in those areas really effectively.

and again, one on one sports like baseball, even cricket are really good for analytics. i just believe that 'fluid' games like soccer and even basketball are really really hard to define.

Yeah, which I think I also mentioned in one of my posts - soccer is really hard to measure with stats. But they can still provide some cool little insights.
For instance - as you said, most people would be well aware Kane goes pretty good.
However, while checking out some stuff on this last week I found a less obvious point that the stat made - in 2016-17 season, while Kane and other top strikers were exceeding expectations, one of the most prominent strikers was underperforming.
Sergio Aguero's chances gave him 20.5 xG for the season while he bagged 20. Compared to Kane scoring 29 from his 18.5 xG. For a guy who has a reputation as one of the most clinical in the league, I guess that may surprise some. One reason would be that playing in such a fluent team as City he would have been afforded a lot of scoring chances.

Anyway as you said, this may already be well known to people closely watching. But for people who want to compare league wide or between leagues, you can't watch all games all the time. And even if you do watch the games, it just provides a number to it.

Rodriguez to carve up some CCM tomorrow night

[Jeterpool]

Rodriguez to carve up some CCM tomorrow night

I think he will come off the bench. Can he be the 4th player to score on debut for the Jets in a derby this season? Oh imagine the scenes.

[380]

Gotta say it seems like forever for this game to come around. How long has it been since we cared so much ?

Can't wait too see Milton's brother in action. If he has trained ok i reckon Ernie might give him the first 60 mins.

[hawk]

https://lh5.ggpht.com/9UDY3O4wSwlBm-kHHfjKf85Yk5GCt0nckL5ZdMR-nYotAfNjODvR4sZ-scPXG3ABVF65=w300

[belchardo]

40 minutes on the field, only 1 goal. terrible return.

[hawk]

instant success and against gypos. winner

[Hunter403]

Score against gypos on debut will earn him an audience with Griff so t hat he may be blessed

[la bazzle]

Best player in the world

[turbojetfireV8]

https://foxsportspmd-a.akamaihd.net/free/nogeoblock/2018/01/09/DVU_090118_HAL_NEW_GOAL_2_201801092150/DVU_090118_HAL_NEW_GOAL_2_201801092150_1596.mp4

[belchardo]

https://foxsportspmd-a.akamaihd.net/free/nogeoblock/2018/01/09/DVU_090118_HAL_NEW_GOAL_2_201801092150/DVU_090118_HAL_NEW_GOAL_2_201801092150_1596.mp4

if you watch the replay from the camera behind the goal, just as he's about to do the dummy to put kennedy off, he has a couple of chews on the gum in his mouth. outstanding. cool as a cucumber.

[MFKS]

if you watch the replay from the camera behind the goal, just as he's about to do the dummy to put kennedy off, he has a couple of chews on the gum in his mouth. outstanding. cool as a cucumber.

The irony is that finally BK dived for once

Pato has managed to do something the bloke couldn't be made to do in 100+ appearances

Lol