KOTH 2: Electric Boogaloo

[GazFish35]

who is leading this thing so I know whose tips to follow?

[q-money]

i think i'm still out by 100 or so after today but PV4 is knocking on the door after his monsieur gustave moonshot

[pv4]

Plaguesy please note Ips RC8.

Cheers,
Pv4

[q-money]

Plaguesy please note Ips RC8.

Cheers,
Pv4

[pv4]

who is leading this thing so I know whose tips to follow?

Don't follow any of the punterz club bets

[plague]

Plaguesy please note Ips RC8.

Cheers,
Pv4

This is fantastic and brilliant.

Well in Sir.

[plague]

One of the usual dribblers on Racenet was talking up Black Tomahawk all week.

Thing came home at $51.

Good golly molly.

[The Dunster]

I'm using the same algorithm for my selections as I used last time - only this time it's not working. I've had a few selections I thought might run ok - but for the most part none of my automatic picks have looked the goods.
It might come good but I don't have a lot of confidence until the tracks firm up and the better horses come back.

[q-money]

duns - how do account for track bias (perceived, or real) in your model? or is it purely performance based?

[skippy]

who is leading this thing so I know whose tips to follow?

Keep your money in your pocket at this time of year.

[The Dunster]

duns - how do account for track bias (perceived, or real) in your model? or is it purely performance based?

Algorithms asks question about rain affected going with a yes or no response. It asks about course performance, track performance, and distance performance, and horses past performances at a given stage of their preparation.

The long runs of outs has in the past been countered by winners at long odds which I would not otherwise have backed using more conventional means.

If I'm punting for real though I don't even look at a form guide. I let other people do it for me and I follow the money.

I simply back the best supported horse in the race - and by best supported I don't always mean the favourite. Specifically, I'm interested only in the last 5 mins of betting - and ignore anything before that.
Unfortunately, in the KOTH doing it that way is not an option.

[pv4]

I simply back the best supported horse in the race - and by best supported I don't always mean the favourite. Specifically, I'm interested only in the last 5 mins of betting - and ignore anything before that.
Unfortunately, in the KOTH doing it that way is not an option.

As a dumb degenerate, is it stupid to ask how you track the last 5 mins of betting? Is it mostly you look at how much the odds vary in the last 5 mins, and the biggest movers in reduction of odds the most appealing?

[The Dunster]

As a dumb degenerate, is it stupid to ask how you track the last 5 mins of betting? Is it mostly you look at how much the odds vary in the last 5 mins, and the biggest movers in reduction of odds the most appealing?

Roughly yes. But you can also see the size of the win pool and calculate from that as well. When I did it back in the early 80's we didn't have the computers / phones or wealth of information like today - so it was a case of analysing movements for anything in a race at 10/1 and shorter odds [which is usually 5 horses or less]. If the best backed was in the Red I'd usually miss the race preferring horses at 2/1 or better [because statistically at least you didn't get rich backing them in the red anyway].

[q-money]

you can watch the tote flucs through the TAB site



punters.com.au do it as well where they aggregate the fixed odds markets through the providers, watch the worm to see what's moving, horses that are coming in go green, those on the drift go red - https://www.punters.com.au/odds-comp...racing/next-6/

[skippy]

If you are lazy there is as an app called plunge its by crownbet, send you a notification off big market movers a couple of minutes out from a race be careful though.

[The Dunster]

If you are lazy there is as an app called plunge its by crownbet, send you a notification off big market movers a couple of minutes out from a race be careful though.

I hope they make this app compatible with my phone.

[goaliepersempre]

Hey sorry missed my tips and punters,

We had our 15 Year Amigos 5 a side Tournament.. alot to do and now ive busted my meniscus in the first game haha...

(dont think you place a bet on an injury happening at the tournament, but would have been short odds)

[q-money]

https://www.dropbox.com/s/z1eaq7mbp3...02017.pdf?dl=0

PC14 438.0
The Dunster 120.0
Skippy 488.5
Leftrightout 582.0
WolfMan 481.0
GPS-AA02 610.0
q-money 908.0
pv4 584.0
hawk 164.0
plague 589.0


punters ops:

[q-money]

Doomben R5: NUMBER : HORSE : WIN/PLACE : STAKE
Doomben R6: NUMBER : HORSE : WIN/PLACE : STAKE
Doomben R7: NUMBER : HORSE : WIN/PLACE : STAKE
Doomben R8: NUMBER : HORSE : WIN/PLACE : STAKE
Hanshin R9: NUMBER : HORSE : WIN/PLACE : STAKE


https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2017-0...OOMBEN/DBN/R/5
https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2017-0...OOMBEN/DBN/R/6
https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2017-0...OOMBEN/DBN/R/7
https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2017-0...OOMBEN/DBN/R/8
http://umanity.jp/en/racedata/race_7...17062509030811


LRO you are up for punters

four of the lowest races in the world at doomben on saturday into the takazukara kinen G1 with the best horses in the world on sunday, get around it u gronks

just put the name of the horse in for the japanese one, struggling to find correct barriers etc

[pv4]

monsieur pv4

Doomben R5: 7 : War Baby : WIN : 20
Doomben R6: 1 : Religify : WIN : 20
Doomben R7: 4 : Egyptian Symbol : WIN : 20
Doomben R8: 14 : All over Bosanova : WIN : 20
Hanshin R9: : Kitasan Black : WIN : 20