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Thread: RodrĂ*guez OUT

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by plague View Post
    cheers, and my following smart ass response is not directed at you.


    but



    so what youre saying is that someone watches a game and determines whether a team is essentially 'lucky' or 'unlucky' in front of goal. they then write that answer down in a fancy numeric term for someone else to decipher that number back out to mean 'lucky' or 'unlucky'.

    so who benefits from knowing this stat? fans who cant be assed watching the game? to be honest they are better just saying 'lucky' or 'unlucky' to the average fan as it would make more sense.

    opposition coaches only reading stats deserve to get the ass whopping that would follow not actually watching the other team play.

    maybe gamblers? i could see it being a quick way to gloss over games to get a better idea on who to include in a fruitless 5 leg multi.




    but man, it just continually amazes me the effort and trust people place in these type of stats as some way to seem more 'sockah woke' than the next guy.

    and yeah im talking about americans, they love this shit. but they are mostly overweight and stupid people.
    Some of it is luck yeah, some of it can be patterns and actual team or player traits. As I mentioned with Kane for example, you look at his goals scored compared to xG over the course of a season (which generally over that time frame a striker is not lucky for the whole thing) and see he is markedly overperforming - its somewhat of a measure of how clinical a finisher he is and is able to score goals more often than he should be.

    As for whether quantifying it is worthwhile - I guess that's personal opinion to some degree, but to me its definitely yes, and I suspect the problem most people have is lack of understanding, not it being a number.
    When discussing who won a game, you could say team A scored more than team B. Or you could say the score was 4-1.
    You could say team A took more shots than team B, or say it was 11 shots to 2.

    Putting a value to it is way more informative (as long as the stat is relevant and accurately determined) than dealing in the binary of yes/no.

    I agree that any coach relying on stats alone is asking for trouble. But using them in conjunction with your eyes is useful, and can help to highlight things you may wish to examine more closely.
    I think too many people look at stats and think "Its either got to be a 100% complete and accurate reflection of the game or its useless" when really most of them are useful if you just regard them as a different way to look at it.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Dunster View Post
    Is the data normalised for bookmaker influence upon players performances? Jokes aside is their an algorithm for these calculations or is it like Time-form with horse racing where they essentially make it up as they go along - then market the crap out of it to make it sound scientific?
    Honestly I haven't looked at the models themselves. I'm not sure what time-form is, I haven't had anything to do with horse racing. My understanding is different stats companies have worked out their own models for them. I believe they would just be calibrated empirically - the BBC page says Opta took data from 300,000 shots to work out the chances of each of them being a goal.

    At this stage I think they should be taken with a grain of salt, as they are not the end product - but still a hell of a lot closer to the real thing than going off shots on target.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by plague View Post


    but man, it just continually amazes me the effort and trust people place in these type of stats as some way to seem more 'sockah woke' than the next guy.

    and yeah im talking about americans, they love this shit. but they are mostly overweight and stupid people.

    Beginning to like your stuff Plague - nail on head. Americans - and people who wish they were Americans.

  4. #24
    infant member plague's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Macca View Post
    As I mentioned with Kane for example, you look at his goals scored compared to xG over the course of a season (which generally over that time frame a striker is not lucky for the whole thing) and see he is markedly overperforming - its somewhat of a measure of how clinical a finisher he is and is able to score goals more often than he should be.
    oh for sure, and again im not arguing with you. but to me anyone doing the numbers on Harry Kane would come up with the same conclusion as someone only watching the game, and that is you should probably mark the bloke who is scoring all the goals.

    now, the numbers wont tell you 'why' he gets so many goals. which is again, why i dont understand the 'need' for a stat that states the blindingly obvious.

    now, again im not anti technology. i actually think that things like heat maps and knowing how much running certain opposition players do. you can set up a game plan to mark players out of their comfort zones, you can run an opposition player ragged who doesnt like to run. i think tech can be used in those areas really effectively.

    and again, one on one sports like baseball, even cricket are really good for analytics. i just believe that 'fluid' games like soccer and even basketball are really really hard to define.
    Quote Originally Posted by MFKS View Post
    And I don't argue with FR. The bloke is a legend and deserves great praise for his contributions to football in the Hunter.
    He is also the second best poster on the entire Foz behind you
    Quote Originally Posted by parksey View Post
    sometimes there's more to life than just winning
    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverRed View Post
    What a deadset ****ing coward **** you are
    Quote Originally Posted by MFKS View Post
    Seems like I am WRONG

  5. #25
    infant member plague's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jetmaster View Post
    Beginning to like your stuff Plague - nail on head. Americans - and people who wish they were Americans.
    beginning?

    i had you at hello.
    Quote Originally Posted by MFKS View Post
    And I don't argue with FR. The bloke is a legend and deserves great praise for his contributions to football in the Hunter.
    He is also the second best poster on the entire Foz behind you
    Quote Originally Posted by parksey View Post
    sometimes there's more to life than just winning
    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverRed View Post
    What a deadset ****ing coward **** you are
    Quote Originally Posted by MFKS View Post
    Seems like I am WRONG

  6. #26
    Senior Member WolfMan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jetmaster View Post
    Beginning to like your stuff Plague - nail on head. Americans - and people who wish they were Americans.
    First thing I thought of was some of the advanced metrics utilised in baseball.

    stuff like xFIP and BABIP

    Pie in the sky stuff, much more useful to baseball though given the sheer amount of games and situations it can be applied to

  7. #27
    Senior Member Premy's Avatar
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    So how about that Rodriguez bloke, can't even have a thread about him not go off on a tangent.

    Paddy out.
    Quote Originally Posted by #fixsmithpark View Post
    I'M GULLIBLE!

  8. #28
    infant member plague's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Premy View Post
    So how about that Rodriguez bloke, can't even have a thread about him not go off on a tangent.

    Paddy out.
    That’s because he’s done nowt to get excited about.

    Total letdown. He could leave tomorrow and I’d not even miss him.

    Typical Middleby signing.

  9. #29
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    Bloke has done nothing.

    Not until he can talk his mate into coming down under to help a struggling club called the Jets on a pro Bono basis.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by plague View Post
    oh for sure, and again im not arguing with you. but to me anyone doing the numbers on Harry Kane would come up with the same conclusion as someone only watching the game, and that is you should probably mark the bloke who is scoring all the goals.

    now, the numbers wont tell you 'why' he gets so many goals. which is again, why i dont understand the 'need' for a stat that states the blindingly obvious.

    now, again im not anti technology. i actually think that things like heat maps and knowing how much running certain opposition players do. you can set up a game plan to mark players out of their comfort zones, you can run an opposition player ragged who doesnt like to run. i think tech can be used in those areas really effectively.

    and again, one on one sports like baseball, even cricket are really good for analytics. i just believe that 'fluid' games like soccer and even basketball are really really hard to define.
    Yeah, which I think I also mentioned in one of my posts - soccer is really hard to measure with stats. But they can still provide some cool little insights.
    For instance - as you said, most people would be well aware Kane goes pretty good.
    However, while checking out some stuff on this last week I found a less obvious point that the stat made - in 2016-17 season, while Kane and other top strikers were exceeding expectations, one of the most prominent strikers was underperforming.
    Sergio Aguero's chances gave him 20.5 xG for the season while he bagged 20. Compared to Kane scoring 29 from his 18.5 xG. For a guy who has a reputation as one of the most clinical in the league, I guess that may surprise some. One reason would be that playing in such a fluent team as City he would have been afforded a lot of scoring chances.

    Anyway as you said, this may already be well known to people closely watching. But for people who want to compare league wide or between leagues, you can't watch all games all the time. And even if you do watch the games, it just provides a number to it.

    Rodriguez to carve up some CCM tomorrow night

  11. #31
    Senior Member Jeterpool's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Macca View Post
    Rodriguez to carve up some CCM tomorrow night
    I think he will come off the bench. Can he be the 4th player to score on debut for the Jets in a derby this season? Oh imagine the scenes.
    Quote Originally Posted by Grimario View Post
    Great. He's gone from Liaoning Whowin to Newcastle Wholose.
    The Championship Chronicles - The Jetstream's review of the 2007/08 season. www.newcastlefootball.net/chronicles

  12. #32
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    Gotta say it seems like forever for this game to come around. How long has it been since we cared so much ?

    Can't wait too see Milton's brother in action. If he has trained ok i reckon Ernie might give him the first 60 mins.

  13. #33
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  14. #34
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    40 minutes on the field, only 1 goal. terrible return.

  15. #35
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    instant success and against gypos. winner

  16. #36
    Senior Member Hunter403's Avatar
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    Score against gypos on debut will earn him an audience with Griff so t hat he may be blessed

  17. #37
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    Best player in the world

  18. #38
    Senior Member turbojetfireV8's Avatar
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    Life isn't the same without Con... but it can only improve without Tinks...

  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by turbojetfireV8 View Post
    if you watch the replay from the camera behind the goal, just as he's about to do the dummy to put kennedy off, he has a couple of chews on the gum in his mouth. outstanding. cool as a cucumber.

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by belchardo View Post
    if you watch the replay from the camera behind the goal, just as he's about to do the dummy to put kennedy off, he has a couple of chews on the gum in his mouth. outstanding. cool as a cucumber.
    The irony is that finally BK dived for once

    Pato has managed to do something the bloke couldn't be made to do in 100+ appearances

    Lol

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