I assume except if it was a draw.Originally Posted by GazFish35
Solid betting by the guy though - tell him to give me some tips!
I assume except if it was a draw.
Solid betting by the guy though - tell him to give me some tips!
OK
New Tuesday Club podcast out, solely about The Invincibles.
OK
do you actually mean he "layed" anderlect for 20? If not, he wasn't covering his bet to break even. As pv4 pointed out, otherwise a draw would have left him stranded (unless he was betting dnb).
This friend is outside straya i take it, since we can't do online live betting?
either way, well done to him
we will loose
he has offshore accounts and is shifty as.
he's the maths genius that worked out the "bet on the draw" system a few of my mates ran (with little captial) over the course of the season and ended with a return of 28cents in the dollar - if opnly we had the balls to bet big!
28% profit is pretty good value actually
Banks are lucky to give you 4-5% for a term deposit!!!
we worked on all draws always openeing at over $3.......they usually open at over $3.20 so even better!
place a bet on game 1 to be a draw, if not double your bet on the next game to draw etc etc
stop betting that weekend once you get a draw and cut your losses after one round i.e - if no draws, write the weekend off and start again next week.
you only need one draw a weekend and your in the money - at that stage of the a-league there were only three or so "no draw" rounds in any of the previous 3 or 4 seasons so we went for it with a budget allwoing for three shit weekneds. the year we ran it i think we hit 5 "no draws" but there were just as many weekends where the final game of the weekend saved our bacon and we won big. (percentage wise)
we all turned a $32 stake (enough to cover 1/2 a weekend of betting) into $41 - not massive cash, but a pretty good % return over the season.
the best thing it was about 5 or 6 guys in the syndicate didnt follow football or were "eurosnobs" and they all now follow the a-league.
discrace we can't live bet online in straya. have wondered if geo-blocking or whatever it's called can get around this??
draws can be excellent value, sice it is an undesirable bet for your day-to-day mug punter, so is priced accordingly. wouldn't surprise me if a draw was more than 1/3 chance, particularly in a salary capped league
interesting choice of analogies. betting should really be viewed as short term trading of boom or bust stocks.
not sure of the logic behind stopping once you won in a round. if you won the first bet of the round you're wasting the chance to get up in the remaining fixtures.
otherwise seems reasonable, however i'd be concerned with the small sample size. what happens if you retrospectively apply the same principles to the previous 9 seasons? or other leagues? you can apply an average odds of $3 to be conservative.
we will loose
We stopped betting after the first draw simply even if in game1 just to reduce the potential to lose. The research we'd done had suggested chasing a second draw in a weekend's round wasn't wort the risk.
I set up a spreadsheet based on the previous two seasons and they would have made about 10% profit.
Essentially with draws opening at over $3 you can run it on any set of games, it's just a matter of how long you want to chase the draw - we chose 5 games as kept it clean within a weekend round.
If you have the cash to throw at 20 games, not played concurrently, you'd win, and you'd win more cash the later the draw appeared in the sequence of games.
Game 1. Bet $1. Draw paying $3, total outlay $1 returns $3, profit =$2, 200% return. If not a draw...
Game 2. Bet $2. Draw paying $3, total outlay $3 return $6, profit =$3, 100% return. If not a draw...
Game 3. Bet $4. Draw paying $3, total outlay $7 returns $12, profit =$5, 71% return. If not a draw...
Game 4. Bet $8. Draw paying $3, total outlay $15 returns $24, profit = $9, 60% return. If not a draw...
Game 5. Bet $16. Draw paying $3, total outlay $31 returns $48, profit = $17, 55% return.
I think the worst odds we ever got on a draw were $3.18, usually 3.25 and sometimes as high as 3.85
We started with a $2 bet in round1 game1, if we had the bank built up we'd agree to lock some away in case we got hit with a "no draw" weekend, or we'd start the next round with a bet of 1/31st of the current betting fund. as I said, not huge money, but so long as one draw happened we were winning.
We'd started the syndicate with enough money to be wiped out (I think) 3 times and banked a few good weekends worth of winnings through the season so we cope with being wiped out more than we'd hoped for.
If you've got enough money, just place a bet of "x" on arsenal's next game to be a draw, if it isn't, bet 2x on the next one, 4x on the one after that, 8x on the next, 16x on the next, 32x after that.........until you get a draw..... Just make sure the odds are over $3.
Last edited by GazFish35; 23-10-2014 at 10:15 PM.
I think he uses bet365.
Apparently the "in game" betting laws are set in a manner that the only one taking the risk of prosecution is the bookmaker, not the punter.
Last edited by GazFish35; 23-10-2014 at 10:39 PM.
So yeah, how about those 2 goals in injury time against Anderlecht ?
The cross from chambers (I think) for the first was quality.
Tuesday club pod most recent edition is a 75minute special interview with the guardians arsenal expert Amy Lawrence as she's just released a book about the invincible season. It's well worth a listen
Last edited by GazFish35; 24-10-2014 at 09:13 AM.
I can't agree with this part - how did you come up with that? a "round" is an artificial construct - how could it impact the probability of a draw occuring? furthermore - if it were true - then when you are doubling your wagers to chase your losses you are doing so in games you deem "more risky".
interesting adaptation to traditional split-martingale: i'll look into this further.
we will loose
If my calcs are correct..
If we worked solely off the 2 rounds so far (how impacting this is in the big picture, I don't know) if we were to use Gaz's version, we would have made a 87.5% profit.
But if we did it so we continued to double the bet up until the first draw, and then immediately the next game started the betting sequence again (ie didn't wait for the next round, just restarted the next game), we would have made a 73% profit.
Gaz - do you have the spreadsheets for the previous 3 years that you said you made still, and is it setup in a way that is easy to see what your returns would be had you restarted the betting sequence immediately after your first win?
OK
I'm assuming data was collected for various rounds. e.g. How many "rounds" had at least 1 draw. And then How many rounds had more than 1 draw. I presume the latter was significantly lower.
I imagine that you could ignore the round factor, and given you had enough in the bank, could simple keep betting until another draw, and repeat once you win irrespective of rounds. However, this would possibly require mor money in the bank to chase the losses.
EDIT: Oops, just saw pv4;s post.
Why does it need to pay more than $3. Is that to make it worthwhile with a higher return? I imagine $2 would also work. As with Roulette, the similar thing applies. Bet on Red, keep doubling your bet until you win, and you'll be x (waterer your starting bet) was, in front.
i don't agree with this - what happened in previous games doesn't impact the probability of a draw in subsequent games*
still, a round is an artificial construct used for 'nicely' dividing a weekends games. the same could in principle be done for any other 5 arbitrarily chosen fixtures.
* unless it's near the end of the season and two opponents may find a draw to be a convenient result, or someone desperately needs a win and so throws numbers forward that they wouldn't have done in earlier rounds etc...
we will loose
the sample size is too small to tell.
is there a reliable database of previous fixtures online? i don't mind dong the calcs and sharing with everyone.
p.s. stop posting about arsenal in my betting thread pls
we will loose
There's a wiki page for every season with every result on it. Just type in "A-League 13/14 season" into google and it'll come up (EDIT: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013%E2...nd_away_season)
Gaz - I'm a little confused. I just did a trial run for last season, using my first bet as $5 and doubling each bet until then, and stopping at each draw in the round. And I came up with $1585 spent, $1140 return, basing all odds at $3.80 (I notice this was the highest you came across, but any lower odds and it's a lower return still). Am I missing something? You said last season you made a 28% return, but I'm coming up with numbers that give an overall loss.
Last edited by pv4; 24-10-2014 at 03:14 PM.
OK
Alright so I had an attempt at doing it Gaz's way, and doing it "Option B" where you restart the betting immediately after the draw.
I must be doing something wrong with Gaz's way, because it's giving me an overall loss for last season that Gaz says he got up 28%.
But option B - it comes back with a 70% return on top of what you bet which is a massive gain. The main issue with this method is the bets get quite high - in round 11 (if working off $5 as starting bet) you would have bet $5115 before a return, and in Round 22 you would have bet $41mil before nesting a return of $71mil(note: I used a return of $3.40 for every bet in this method). The overall figures of this method were $41953870 spent, $71320780 return ($5 initial bet, $3.40 return on every winning bet).
Last edited by pv4; 24-10-2014 at 03:15 PM.
OK
I can see WLG in 20 years time with half a tooth grinning as he fishes out a tin of tuna from some Gosford dumpster and when asked where it all went wrong in his life he thinks back to this thread on the foz cause this was the start of the downward spiral
"I used to be a lawyer, man!"
OK
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote