Arsenal (the fiesta is mouldy) thread.

[snake]

he has offshore accounts and is shifty as.

he's the maths genius that worked out the "bet on the draw" system a few of my mates ran (with little captial) over the course of the season and ended with a return of 28cents in the dollar - if opnly we had the balls to bet big!

discrace we can't live bet online in straya. have wondered if geo-blocking or whatever it's called can get around this??

draws can be excellent value, sice it is an undesirable bet for your day-to-day mug punter, so is priced accordingly. wouldn't surprise me if a draw was more than 1/3 chance, particularly in a salary capped league

28% profit is pretty good value actually

Banks are lucky to give you 4-5% for a term deposit!!!

interesting choice of analogies. betting should really be viewed as short term trading of boom or bust stocks.

we worked on all draws always openeing at over $3.......they usually open at over $3.20 so even better!

place a bet on game 1 to be a draw, if not double your bet on the next game to draw etc etc
stop betting that weekend once you get a draw and cut your losses after one round i.e - if no draws, write the weekend off and start again next week.


you only need one draw a weekend and your in the money - at that stage of the a-league there were only three or so "no draw" rounds in any of the previous 3 or 4 seasons so we went for it with a budget allwoing for three shit weekneds. the year we ran it i think we hit 5 "no draws" but there were just as many weekends where the final game of the weekend saved our bacon and we won big. (percentage wise)


we all turned a $32 stake (enough to cover 1/2 a weekend of betting) into $41 - not massive cash, but a pretty good % return over the season.

the best thing it was about 5 or 6 guys in the syndicate didnt follow football or were "eurosnobs" and they all now follow the a-league.

not sure of the logic behind stopping once you won in a round. if you won the first bet of the round you're wasting the chance to get up in the remaining fixtures.

otherwise seems reasonable, however i'd be concerned with the small sample size. what happens if you retrospectively apply the same principles to the previous 9 seasons? or other leagues? you can apply an average odds of $3 to be conservative.